May 2021
Complete authored posts and demonstrable self-threads.
#auspol #covid19 the pandemic is over! The UK full of this tripe now. Having sacrificed about 130,000 people to economic interests, it then (with the US) hoovered up most of the world's vaccine supply, and apparently ended the pandemic, within its own borders. https://t.co/ToadpNIWj5
#covid19 #auspol experts see 'living with the virus' as a control and vaccination process to achieve endemicity. Politicians and business groups see it as letting the virus circulate, with vaccines minimising damage. We must define terms to progress. https://t.co/BHCrxt4q26
#covid19 #auspol it's incredibly difficult to challenge the public narratives around vaccines and risk without being immediately shunted into some loon anti-vaxxer, irrational category. But a few thoughts. 1/n
The AZ vaccine repeatedly described as a 'safe' vaccine, where 'benefits outweigh the risks'. Very rarely are those benefits and risks debated publicly. And the pubic become 'hesitant' (a term used with an elitist sneer by many, 'it's OK, you're just a bit simple, trust us'). 2/n
Population risk has been used as a proxy for individual risk, because causal factors for the clotting are poorly understood. Population risk sounds tremendously safe, tiny numbers. 'X in a million'. 3/n
In reality it's not true that there's a tiny risk for everybody in having this vaccine, the population risk. A small number of people carry ALL of the risk, and the rest of us zero. We can't identify who that small number are, yet. 4/n
Averaging the risk across an entire population doesn't reflect the actual reality people face. For some people this will mean death. For most not. But there's no sensible way for any one person to assess which of those is them, to do a meaningful, personal risk assessment. 5/n
The UK, where 41 people have now died as a result of the AZ vaccine. "But out of millions of jabs, and Covid is much deadlier!" Population-level arguments. Imagine if paracetamol killed 41 people a year, with tens of millions of doses. Would it still be on the shelves? 6/n
This is the sort of *personal* risk assessment people make. Not population-level arguments. There are also key assumptions in play, such as that it will be too slow to wait for other vaccines. Defined in what way? 7/n
There are other public health measures that can be used to maintain control of Covid almost indefinitely. In Australia the methodology is well tested. 'Risk' is only meaningful inside a framework of assumptions. Individuals have their own frameworks. 8/n
Unless we discuss these frameworks, there'll be a stand-off. If we're saying that the economics is the critical thing here, say it. If we're saying we don't want to maintain control over the virus in other ways while we sort out the clots, say it. 9/n
There are clear alternative vaccines and other public heath control measures available. If those aren't going to be prioritised, say why. If the 'Economy' is the key driver here, say it. Say 'you may die, but the Economy will be saved'. Say it. 10/end
@rajah_mich would you still advise Australia to hold out for the most effective vaccine available? I see we'll have enough Pfizer to vaccinate all adults by the end of the year, is there a need for this great rush to use AZ?
#auspoI the LNP has achieved almost full nerd immunity. Even with the pandemic the experts were carefully selected and toilet trained. https://t.co/PEtMNd1H9R
#auspol about time we started talking about risk and undue haste with vaccination. As Science points out, a sound strategy for a country with low or zero Covid (like Oz) is to extend the vaccine rollout to allow different vaccines to be used. https://t.co/b9AgXMtDXf
#auspol Australia's obsession with vaccination haste is 90% this: https://t.co/rAFpkGr9gW
@CrabbBrendan @billbowtell good piece from Science, suggesting vaccination haste may not be the optimal public health strategy for countries with very low Covid rates? Use highest efficacy vaccines, take your time etc. https://t.co/hYvyWZhmSo
@rajah_mich thought this was interesting, about how in countries with low Covid rates, holding off until other vaccines are available is a sound risk approach? https://t.co/HpRL1T5rKC
@MikeySlezak I know we discussed vaccines and risk a few weeks ago. Population vs individual etc. Had meant to tag you on this one earlier, I think it contextualises risk very well. Rather than just using population risk as a proxy. https://t.co/HpRL1T5rKC
#auspol another outbreak, in which NSW will no doubt demonstrate its big kahoonas by rejecting a short lockdown, in favour of 3 months of hotspots and laundry lists of rules, to save the Economy. While running second-last amongst States economically.
#auspol meaning...Australia's 50+ cut-off is too low. https://t.co/oBS1EVtbud
#auspol "Our response will be proportionate". Gladys. More weaponised spin, making 'lockdown' the evil to be avoided. Global data shows conclusively that fast lockdowns have the best health, economic and civil liberties outcomes.
#covid19 the frustrating medicalisation of this pandemic. Vaccines spoken of as the route back to normal life. Wider expertise would show that normal life was the problem in the first place. It's resistant to all change.
@rajah_mich is my back of the envelope correct here? Assuming of course that 16 million all get vaccinated, which they won't, but I'm talking risk estimates here. https://t.co/KA2PNuwvuS
#auspol this is what 'proportionate' action looks like. It's not a 'lockdown' if you ask the public to do it for you. The lockdown you have when you're not having a lockdown. https://t.co/kNEaWKLE8A
@CrabbBrendan @billbowtell @GregDore2 if you recommend the public to not go out and mix, it's 'proportionate'. But if the government tells them not to, it's a 'lockdown'? Words matter, what on Earth does 'strongly recommend' mean in a public health crisis? https://t.co/kiD1zQkRvs
#covid19 look, i'm educated to the eyeballs, not an anti-vaxxer. But this 'low risk' stuff irritates. That's population risk. If your entire population is being vaccinated, that small numerator becomes actual events. The ethics need to be explicit. https://t.co/V2XCt6lt9p
#covid19 vaccine passports over before they began? https://t.co/73NTByRqDx
Watching JCVI give updated vaccine advice. Fascinating to watch expertise trying to shape individual behaviour with population-level arguments. The population is a statistical construct, nobody lives there.
#covid19 this from John Skerritt, a nice bloke. Economic thinkers have wanted this shift in the public narrative for a year, 'only vaccines will end this pandemic'. They won't, alone, it's a dangerous shift. It excuses us dropping the ball on basic suppression of virus spread. https://t.co/SqWnJV0hzp
#covid19 a year since the disaster of 2020 summer holidays and Covid in Europe, they’ve learned nothing. https://t.co/rt5E1sphj2
A year of world-leading effort, costing countless billions, now under threat by the same idiot ‘live with the virus’ people who opposed success at every stage. https://t.co/PYySnHqO1A
#covid19 #auspol we're into day 2 of the 'proportionate' NSW response. 2 known infections only. Huge and growing venue list. Long list of restrictions. If this isn't all wrapped up by tomorrow, why is this more proportionate than a 3-day 'lockdown'?
#covid19 "It would be foolish to assume that “better” vaccines available in the West will necessarily save us...(methods) to combat variants...may include booster shots, new vaccines, masks and slowing down reopenings." https://t.co/vg8LVbCg4u
#insiders this BS about 'low risk appetite'. Australians don't want the virus. They're smarter than these economic boobs who think getting the rubber ducks rolling back off the production line is 'normal life'.
#insiders come on, 2 economic journalists here, buying this idiot idea that you use aggregate employment numbers to drive wages growth? Unions drive wages growth, industrial muscle. Even the RBA has said it.
#auspol Good on them. But 'proportionate' measures again mean: 1) a lot more complicated restrictions, 2) over a lot longer time. Lockdowns are faster, more effective, and cheaper. And in aggregate restrict social freedom less. https://t.co/4zhhx5tIru
@liammannix @CrabbBrendan to use NSW as an example, this shows a total of 7,342 vaccinations in the past 24 hours. Weekdays usually around 20,000. These are relatively tiny numbers? Hesitancy or supply? https://t.co/WX7SKOwaiW
#auspol #covid19 individual and population risk. What's going on right now is mathematically dishonest, and unethical. Do we still talk about ethics? https://t.co/VZsPtuprY9
#auspol the over-50 demographic votes very heavily for the LNP. Let's see how long this age cut-off lasts. https://t.co/eisDS1wa7G
@ComissionerKate
Bam. #auspol https://t.co/ENhn3P6Rso
@DrZoeHyde 👏👏👏
@CrabbBrendan @billbowtell @ProfPCDoherty you may not agree with the logic here, I don't know. But I'm buggered if I can find a hole in it. https://t.co/ENhn3P6Rso
@ComissionerKate https://t.co/ENhn3P6Rso
@profmiketoole were the index cases for the multiple Sydney outbreaks over December-January ever found? I can't find anything that says definitively.
#auspol This is twice in 6 months that contact tracing has failed, as a primary strategy. Both times luck - that the virus didn't transmit further - saved NSW. Can our public discussion be more nuanced, instead of meaningnless slogans about 'gold standards' and 'lockdowns'? https://t.co/6I3KBbfqmB
@MarylouiseMcla1 I was very impressed with this, your thoughts? https://t.co/ENhn3P6Rso
#auspol I'm sure there are other Australians like me who won't forget that their country, supported by experts, made them weigh 2 risks of death. https://t.co/MV38w7sdjP
#auspol Only unions - industrial muscle - will change the conservative dominance. Protests won't. Conservatives already own the means of production and communication. Unions the only counter-balance. https://t.co/qASTsMf6DF
#auspol public health experts should provide public health reasons for this obsession with opening up. The public is leading both government and expertise here, other experts understand why. https://t.co/X68YXuc5y4
#auspol #covid19 why have we allowed 'opening up' to become a theme in this pandemic? As if public health restrictions were the problem, not the virus. Countries are doing well with forced internal reflection, economically too.
#qanda can't believe we have a whole program and national conversation for months over the national spreadsheet.
#covid19 watching UK news, with regular repeated BS about how the UK may soon be 'free of the pandemic'. As if you can end it inside one nation's borders. Like hoping to be free of rain or wind. The US and UK have been a disgrace in this pandemic.
#auspol #covid19 In the eventual wash-up after this pandemic, as an expert be one that didn't trivialise lethal side effects of an intervention. Your record will be here for all to see afterwards. https://t.co/txeXIKdwQO
@DrZoeHyde I know experts are reluctant to criticise other experts, but your view on those in Oz right now minimising concerns about clotting? Using population risk to tell people 'your risk is tiny'? For some people, the risk is 100%.
That's right 'fake matt'. Curious name your parents chose for you there.
#covid19 If countries who didn't control Covid until now manage it via vaccines, they can join those countries who did control it, who 'ended' the pandemic about a year ago. Can't let the incompetent who killed millions for an 'Economy' now own the pandemic narrative. https://t.co/hXevXkJkrU
#auspol #covid19 https://t.co/naSdPSjjzt
@covid19 look out, virus about! How about 'we have restricted movement and gathering in this area because of this variant'. Nah, that might harm the Economy 🙄 https://t.co/zCE5YjGI01
#auspol #covid19 not seeing anybody connect the 2 plagues right now. Mice and Covid. Both caused by ecosystem disruption. In turn caused by our 'Economy', which has transformed agriculture into an economic system as well. The Economy caused the pandemic. https://t.co/sdRijmDGgi
@billbowtell the absurdities 'living with the virus' creates. From the UK, look out, virus about! Like you can dodge it on the footpath. https://t.co/LXKeHOiPPL
#covid19 #auspol "consent should be a voluntary choice, and should be based on sufficient information and adequate understanding of both the proposed research and the implications of participation in it." From the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research. 1/n
While vaccination programs aren't technically research, the current rollouts do collect data and evaluate and shift, in real-time. So they are research as well. Notwithstanding that, the issue of 'consent' for any medical procedure is being glossed over in this pandemic. 2/n
The 'implications' in particular, around the clotting issue, are being constantly summarised with phrases such as 'a tiny risk'. That seems fundamentally dishonest and unethical, to me, and confuses two types of risk. 3/n
A phenomenon where the chance of an outcome is tiny for every instance, like entering a lottery, is fairly described as a 'tiny' chance/risk for every participant. That's not what we have in the case of vaccinations and clots. 4/n
With the clots, a small but not insignificant number of people carry *all* of the risk. They have a 100% chance of developing a clot, from a vaccination. 20-25% of those people will die. For everybody else, the risk is zero. 5/n
It's profoundly misleading to describe this as a 'tiny risk' for everybody being vaccinated with the AZ vaccine. As some researchers are now saying, in countries with virus control, the risk of death from the AZ vaccine may be higher than from Covid. 6/n
We get many stern lectures from some experts about 'the greater good'. Having worked with the National Statement and HRECs for decades, this frankly amazes and even disgusts me. An emergency does not absolve us from doing ethical things, and thinking through consent. 7/n
In fact much of what is patronisingly being called 'vaccine hesitancy' I think is the outcome of zero attention being given to consent and ethical practice. 8/end
@rajah_mich @billbowtell in case of interest.
#auspol more proportionate measures, he'll probably be 'strongly recommended' to stand down. https://t.co/Ng84YiZSQH
#auspol “...open up Australia to world travel and arrivals so that our education sector, tourism sector and all of the other kinds of compassionate reasons for us to see family and friends overseas can come to the fore.” The first two are economic problems easily remedied...1/n https://t.co/idYpSqT82e
...by additional funding and/or changes to business models. Universities only rely upon international students because of decades of funding cuts. Australia relies upon tourism because it doesn't build anything any more. 2/n
Family reunion, compassionate travel obviously important. But we've done without for 4-5 years to fight wars. And this is a war. Pandemics shift status quos that have become dysfunctional. It's why they happen. The pandemic is 'over' when we recognise it. 3/end
@GidMK @CrabbBrendan very little data here to be able to really say, I'm sure, but would be interested in hypotheses? https://t.co/tVuutuzwVB
#auspol freedom is not the freedom to become infected. The libertarian BS that has opposed every action against this pandemic from day 1 needs to be opposed in every nook and cranny of its stupidity. https://t.co/0FmD4cDJC9
#insiders two words that should send a shiver down every ordinary working person's spine. 'Structural reform'.
#insiders you have to love how Josh smiles while he spews out the meaningless slogans. He knows it's all focus group-driven gibberish.
#auspol #covid19 "In many places, the decision is not whether to vaccinate, but whether to use AstraZeneca now or wait for another vaccine to become available...Even a long wait for an alternative may be worth it if infections are low. 1/n https://t.co/DcGqI1MALD
In Norway, the risk of dying from TTS for women age 45 to 49 is equivalent to the risk of dying from COVID-19 over the next 79 weeks, assuming the infection rate stays the same, Camilla Stoltenberg, director general of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health...2/n
...told the 29 April webinar. “That group will have alternative vaccines, maybe with a small delay but nothing close to 79 weeks,” she said."
#auspol #covid19 we don't need to 'learn to live with the virus'. It needs to learn to live with us. With our boot on its throat, through heavy restrictions as required. And vaccines to build immunity.
#auspol #covid19 the public health path ahead isn't vaccine A or vaccine B. It's vaccine + other public health measures. Many Australians calculating that the other measures will buy them the time to access a higher efficacy vaccine with no risk of mortality. https://t.co/yK8k45Svf9
#auspol #covid19 I guess it was this sort of thing that prompted the government to cut funding again from universities, and give it to rent-seeking parasites as tax cuts. https://t.co/nSgsJCN3fq
#auspol let's get it out to the regions Australia. And to the over-50s too. https://t.co/CjQmoLY4xW
@CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole I haven't seen much commentary on this? It seems compelling. https://t.co/J69bYFRNCY
It would be a great for the Oz community if our prominent public health professionals explained what 'living with the virus' specifically means, in public health terms? There are so many ambiguous slogans in circulation. @MarylouiseMcla1 @CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole @GregDore2 https://t.co/o7nJ14alwH
#auspol #covid19 time to use the UK mantra here, and mean it. Data, not dates. https://t.co/mJcVYIytXq
#covid19 #auspol We've heard lots of wonderful medical and scientific expertise in this pandemic. Often, sadly, ignored. What we haven't heard as much are voices from the public policy community. The thinking that ties it all together. A thread...1/n
A pandemic is more a social and political than a scientific or medical phenomenon. Clear evidence of this is in the vastly different outcomes in different countries, in this pandemic so far. As @billbowtell says, nature makes viruses, politics makes pandemics. 2/n
It's very clear from the example of those countries who achieved local elimination of the virus that this was an achievable outcome, and not heavily dependent upon scientific or medical expertise. These were public policy successes. 3/n
Had all countries pursued the same strategy, it's arguable the pandemic would never have occurred. The dictum if all you have is a hammer, then everything begins to look like a nail, is playing out in expert opinion, with expertise arguing contested ways out of the pandemic. 4/n
We saw this in the debates around 'balancing' public health action against economies, a nonsensical framing driven by politicians, journalists and some economists. Beating the virus saves economies, there's no binary. The 'opening up' narrative continues however. 5/n
Having rejected the mitigation strategy adopted in much of the rest of the developed world, to great success, Oz now is lurching towards reframing its current public policy response against that global response. I think this is dangerous. 6/n
The great desire to have a vaccine to 'end the pandemic' (still a common narrative) seems to have thrown strategic caution to the wind, with countries now falling all over each other in a league table race to vaccinate quickly. Often the wrong countries. 7/n
With the 'vaccine apartheid' (WHO term) currently underway, developed nations seem determined to end the pandemic at home, and get back to 'normal' life. But normal life - gig economies - was the main cause of the pandemic. 8/n
Countries unable to take on the most basic act of sheltering from a threat, because of just-in-time economic processes. As Sir Richard Barrons has said, developed countries now have almost no resilience to major threats. And we call that 'normal'. 9/n
Australia now flagellating itself for being slow to roll out vaccines. Adopting the urgency from those parts of the world who in 2020 failed miserably to do even basic virus control. Driven by the re-emergence of the most lethal 'open up' variant in public policy. 10/n
Australia is not a fortress. Goods still flow across the borders. People less so, due to a (public policy) refusal to build dedicated quarantine facilities. Throughout the pandemic lack of basic planning worldwide is evoked as a reason to not do basic public health work. 11/n
To give public policy perspective, the (supposed) collapse of international travel in the pandemic actually just returns the world to the level of travel it undertook in 2004. Our old normal is the problem here, trying to prise apart strong public health strategies. 12/n https://t.co/26XM8v3CYD
From a public policy viewpoint, countries like Australia and NZ already 'ended' the pandemic. It's the rest of the world now scrambling to catch up, leaning very heavily on vaccines. It's dangerous for the antipodes to gauge themselves against this First World first aid job. 13/n
One not mentioned possible strategy is for Oz to simply wait until the rest of the world has the virus under control, closely approximating the situation already lived here for most of the past year. 14/n
We need to rigorously test the assumption that the rest of the world is now on a fast-track back to 'normal', and Australia is being left behind. The global pandemic statistics are worse now than at at any stage of the pandemic. 15/n
Rich countries who have vacuumed up world vaccine supply in their desperate first aid operation are now delusionally talking as if the end of the pandemic is in sight. They should not be our guides. Should the vaccines fail, they still have almost nothing to fall back on. 16/n
The Oz public (who have persistently pressured for strong public heath action) unsurprisingly now want the highest efficacy and safest vaccines, and are being told the few months of waiting required for mRNA jabs for all will place the country at enormous risk. 17/n
Why? Australia faced the virus when no vaccines were available, and was able to maintain elimination. Now if we don't all rush out and get vaccinated by tomorrow, all of that will stop working? The variants of 'open up' are active again, driven by business groups mostly. 18/n
If there are further outbreaks in the meantime, Oz knows what to do. But does it still want to do that, or has it surreptitiously now adopted the open up variants continuously reactivated by vested interests in rich countries? 19/n
We need to rigorously challenge the economic framing of this pandemic. Australia's 'Economy' is actually booming right now. We can't have everything international travel adds to that Economy, but much of that was also the least resilient parts of it. 20/n
Foreign students, for example. Universities only became so reliant upon them through many years of funding cuts. Fix the funding cuts, the problem dissolves. Tourism dollars often flowed overseas, away from starved industries here. Etc. 21/n
So much of the urgency right now is driven by the old status quo, desperately trying to reassert itself. It shouldn't be allowed to succeed. 22/end
#QandA some cheap, dispatchable slogans from Barnaby.
#QandA Australia's sophisticated multi-dimensional pandemic response is now being thrown away in favour of 'vaccinate fast, open up'. The motto of the countries who have failed in this pandemic.
#QandA the exponential growth in world travel is unsustainable, one thing we should learn from this pandemic is how obsessed we've become with it. Hopping on a plane seems to = end of the pandemic.
@CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole if mass vaccinations may need to restart as early as September in the US, this suggests the truth of #VaccinesPLUS? That speed of vaccination is a lesser problem now than lack of global focus and control of spread? https://t.co/SiBugOnbd4
#covid19 #auspol A pandemic is an ecological, social and political event. We've treated it as an economic and medical event.
#covid19 #auspol in my experience good ethics also produces the best outcomes. 'Hesitancy' is the absence of ethical consideration. Repeating the line about low risks may be a breach of basic informed consent, just for starters. https://t.co/YLgQrCPSC2
#covid19 #auspol the constant calls to 'open up' during the pandemic have been the grown up version of 'are we there yet?' from kids in cars.
@auspol @MarylouiseMcla1 we shouldn't make opening borders the endgame of our public health strategy. Right now too many seeing vaccines as a passport to 'normal life' while the pandemic still rages. https://t.co/IgprzVnpIc
@auspol #covid19 time is out of joint? Public health professionals daily giving individual health advice, and physicians having to plead to change the public health strategy?
@auspol #covid19 'hesitancy' is clearly about consent. If people are vaccine hesitant, it means we haven't done the basic medical consent. That's a dialogue, not the making of quirky TV ads.
@arthistorynews was photorealism actually, as the name suggests, inspired by photography? Or are there earlier precedents of extreme 'likeness'? This modern work by Gottfried Helnwein startles people. https://t.co/MDB6bHqeVL
@fleetstreetfox may be of interest: https://t.co/GUUBVfuIKB
@auspol #covid19 why doesn't Oz: 1. do a UK and prioritise the *first dose* to as many people as possible 2. that way the existing Pfizer supply could be extended across twice as many people, to help with hesitancy. Efficacy of both vaccines improves with delayed 2nd dose.
@GregDore2 @profmiketoole @MarylouiseMcla1 Couldn't Oz do as the UK did last year, prioritise the first dose to as many as possible? That would double coverage, and importantly the amount of Pfizer doses available, for the hesitant. Efficacy also grows with delayed 2nd doses.
@auspol this isn't just about hesitancy. Using the highest efficacy vaccines is a better long-term strategic option for Australia. The endgame isn't opening borders, it's ending the pandemic, and getting as close to herd immunity as we can. https://t.co/NzU4zkJh0k
#insiders it's ridiculous that hysteria about speed of vaccination is replacing our multi-faceted public health approach to the pandemic. A few months ago wise heads said speed wasn't the key thing. Now it's the only thing.
#auspol #insiders The public's instincts in this pandemic have been spot-on. Its 'hesitancy' right now is a warning to us that we're not seeing something. I'd suggest it wants to continue a strong, mutli-dimensional public health approach. Not proxies like speed of jabs.
#auspol Staggers me that parties can win elections for 25 years by spending billions on border measures. But when the border is being used to keep out a lethal pathogen over a very short time, we suddenly get this patronising 'Fortress Australia' critique. https://t.co/jlUdxktmAw
#auspol much of the hysteria about the rate of vaccination in Australia is driven by the speed of vaccination in the UK and US. We need to look beneath the spin. https://t.co/K1Xlmjx45h
@auspol @annabelcrabb it's a sign of our populist and libertarian times I think that a public passionate about using its public institutions to do what they were designed to do, are described as being in love with 'being told what to do'. https://t.co/TaEUMCWrjb
#auspol #covid19 have we lost perspective? Our Covid narrative is now overwhelmingly about speed of vaccination. That speed in developed countries is prolonging the pandemic. https://t.co/RJFXCoUjMd
#auspol #covid19 a guiding principle for me in this pandemic is to immediately do the opposite of what the head of any airline suggests. https://t.co/RGKEM9TtPy
#auspol When did Oz's expert community sit down with international colleagues and decide the best global strategy right now is rich nations speed vaccinating with most of the world's vaccine supply? The only nations who can afford strong suppression. https://t.co/RJFXCoUjMd
@CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole @ProfPCDoherty @GregDore2 @rajah_mich @MarylouiseMcla1 a genuine question.
@PatsKarvelas has the most beautiful eyes in a mask. Every Melbourne outbreak has a silver lining.
#auspol #covid19 why in the hysterical public narrative of needing to vaccinate the country to get us through winter, is it not said that even under the original October deadline to finalise vaccination, the task wouldn't have been done until over a month after winter ends?
#auspol Vaccination today will make as good as no difference to this current outbreak, unless it goes on for months. Australia is still mixing up ending the pandemic globally and getting fast vaccinations locally. The 2 are in some ways mutually exclusive. https://t.co/xamG8KXybe
@profmiketoole @CrabbBrendan I feel that anxiety is increasingly driving Australia's strategy, rather than the calm heads of most of the past year. https://t.co/ydb8lNA6F5
#auspol #covid19 think I give up on this. The developed world has turned pandemic strategy into some sort of football league of who can vaccinate the fastest. Which in turn prolongs the pandemic because vaccine often isn't going where it's most needed. https://t.co/eNNfeoUIpx
#auspol #covid19 Oz was never going to be vaccinated enough by now to prevent this. Instead of fixing quarantine and focusing on ongoing local elimination, the push to 'open up' (with vaccination rate as the Trojan Horse) is again hijacking our strategy. https://t.co/XhD4jz5NZI
#covid19 when the history of the pandemic is written, it won't be lockdowns that caused mental health problems (if there are any problems above normal). It will be the people who put economies ahead of people. https://t.co/SQeUWfgcfj
#covid19 #auspol we learned what Oz hasn't learned. That we use a venal statistical instrument we call 'the Economy' to transform complex social issues into a handful of statistical indicators, framed to favour the interests of the wealthy. https://t.co/SarU2QX9ap
#auspol #covid19 @CrabbBrendan all wise words. I sometimes wonder if the pandemic would be as good as over if the world quarantined and vaccinated countries with high viral load and spread. Ring-fence them. As we do for Ebola and other outbreaks. https://t.co/JbPHDv2dW2
#covid19 #auspol @billbowtell @CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole @GregDore2 a thread asking some questions about global public health programs. 1/n
Normally for an epidemic outbreak, for example Ebola, the country of origin is rapidly 'ring-fenced' to prevent spread outside the area of origin. And control measures are then used within that quarantined area. 2/n
With this pandemic, China did undertake a similar ring-fencing, once the outbreak was identified. (Leaving to one side whether that was done quickly enough.) However once the virus reached developed countries, this process broke down? 3/n
There was no willingness to quarantine virus within national boundaries, with flights continuing for months, often for economic reasons, spreading the virus rapidly around the world. These flights are still continuing. 4/n
Despite the public perception that the pandemic has destroyed international air travel, flight numbers throughout the pandemic are actually at the same level as the world saw in 2004, during 'normal' times. 5/n
In a sense, the pandemic has been 'over' for months in every country that had either no spread, or controlled the virus early, like Australia or NZ. In an Ebola outbreak, we focus on where the virus is, not where it isn't. 6/n
Now countries like Australia are urged to vaccinate quickly, even though there's been no significant Covid here for the entire pandemic. The assumption in play here is that the world will continue to spread the virus, so we need to be prepared. 7/n
From a pragmatic point of view, that's fair enough. But it still represents a disgraceful refusal by the developed world to follow even basic epidemic/pandemic procedures? Surely history and logic here says the fastest way to end the pandemic is...8/n
...to quarantine areas where spread is occurring, and focus public health action, including vaccination, in those areas, while those parts of the world like Oz without Covid can be said to have effectively beaten the pandemic and continue with normal life. 9/n
Of course we should vaccinate here too, but the urgency to do so right now seems driven by the collapse of global health processes, rather than the virus. The refusal to keep the virus controlled, where it currently is. 10/end
#auspol Racism, paternalism, pandemics. With Ebola outbreaks, the world mobilises to isolate those regions and countries ASAP, to prevent spread. With Covid, the source is rich countries. Now the approach is 'vaccinate the world so our jetset lifestyles aren't interrupted'. https://t.co/qagGO7OfvU
#auspol it's not 'hesitancy', it's those 50+ being plain fucking angry at the expediency of the Oz vaccination strategy. Not them being simple and resisting the science. NZ did so much better by putting safety first, and not rushing. Oz now panicked, authoritarian hysteria.
#auspol the government's man, out there arguing the politics, as usual, dressed up as science. https://t.co/dXkw9IEwP2
#auspol #covid19 rush to vaccinate = refusal to fix hotel quarantine. 'Hesitancy' = experts saying 'safe' in one breath, and then releasing the latest weekly clot data. The US/UK use vaccines as a substitute for strategy. We're following them. https://t.co/nQdn28KPut
#auspol I think we're doing permanent damage to public health attitudes. Don't say 'this is very low risk for everybody'. Say 'most of you will have no effect, some will get very sick'. If you're hesitant to say that, you now understand hesitancy. https://t.co/d5kF4hnXKp
@auspol and/or cash for quarantine. The only reason Australia is panicking about vaccination speed is because quarantine continues to leak. NZ isn't panicking. https://t.co/LjMofZ620M
#auspol #covid19 Experts and politicians would say 'but only 58 people have died from the clots, out of just over 24.2 million jabs! That's tiny!' It's the numerator, dimwits. Nobody lives in the denominator. https://t.co/d0C2QsjV50
#auspol #covid19 The developed world reminds me of the struggle road workers have getting cars to slow down. The desperation to run 'normal life' alongside a pandemic. Hoping that vaccinating removes the need to do basic restrictions on movement and gathering. Kids next victims. https://t.co/k4EsbRn0Iv
#auspol #covid19 the guiding principle of any pandemic should be PREVENT INFECTION. Not allow it, and use medications to stem severe disease. If you allow it, even with medication, it will eventually get the upper hand. Movement and gathering restrictions are the key, always.
@patientsafe3 #covid19 #auspol when you read the detailed treatment guidelines for VITT, it makes you think AZ should be described as 'safe, except for people whose heads we might have to cut open to try to remove clots'. Saying that's a tiny number is an ethical minefield. https://t.co/skFDfA5KG3
@CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole @GregDore2 @ProfPCDoherty what definition of 'safe' are we using if somebody's head has to be cut open to try to remove clots? Is it a greater good argument? Some are expendable? Justifiable, when alternatives are available? https://t.co/skFDfA5KG3
#auspol #covid19 strange that they were working on a problem that experts here say is a beat-up by the media. https://t.co/1qu9m3Hdu9
#covid19 #auspol has anybody sighted any ethical framework for our Covid strategy? The doctors-know-best narratives abound, as does 'hesitancy', all signs that no ethical analysis has been done at all. https://t.co/RTy6ynr7u0
#auspol so ATAGI-willing, AZ vaccine to some under-50s from Wednesday?
#auspol the dream that the vaccines will allow us to return to normal life with virus still circulating is just the latest lethal idiot idea from the Economy cult. The Economy is the cause of the pandemic, and continues to prolong it. https://t.co/3teTQk5Avj
@CrabbBrendan @profmiketoole I haven't seen a better thread confirming the importance of #VaccinesPLUS. https://t.co/2Ni83qxKCf
#auspol #covid19 year 2 of the pandemic, same script. The Economy cult who caused year 1, fresh from their jabs, back for more of the same. https://t.co/wO4yl6TU9h