#covid19 #auspol it's incredibly difficult to challenge the public narratives around vaccines and risk…
#covid19 #auspol it's incredibly difficult to challenge the public narratives around vaccines and risk without being immediately shunted into some loon anti-vaxxer, irrational category. But a few thoughts. 1/n
The AZ vaccine repeatedly described as a 'safe' vaccine, where 'benefits outweigh the risks'. Very rarely are those benefits and risks debated publicly. And the pubic become 'hesitant' (a term used with an elitist sneer by many, 'it's OK, you're just a bit simple, trust us'). 2/n
Population risk has been used as a proxy for individual risk, because causal factors for the clotting are poorly understood. Population risk sounds tremendously safe, tiny numbers. 'X in a million'. 3/n
In reality it's not true that there's a tiny risk for everybody in having this vaccine, the population risk. A small number of people carry ALL of the risk, and the rest of us zero. We can't identify who that small number are, yet. 4/n
Averaging the risk across an entire population doesn't reflect the actual reality people face. For some people this will mean death. For most not. But there's no sensible way for any one person to assess which of those is them, to do a meaningful, personal risk assessment. 5/n
The UK, where 41 people have now died as a result of the AZ vaccine. "But out of millions of jabs, and Covid is much deadlier!" Population-level arguments. Imagine if paracetamol killed 41 people a year, with tens of millions of doses. Would it still be on the shelves? 6/n
This is the sort of *personal* risk assessment people make. Not population-level arguments. There are also key assumptions in play, such as that it will be too slow to wait for other vaccines. Defined in what way? 7/n
There are other public health measures that can be used to maintain control of Covid almost indefinitely. In Australia the methodology is well tested. 'Risk' is only meaningful inside a framework of assumptions. Individuals have their own frameworks. 8/n
Unless we discuss these frameworks, there'll be a stand-off. If we're saying that the economics is the critical thing here, say it. If we're saying we don't want to maintain control over the virus in other ways while we sort out the clots, say it. 9/n
There are clear alternative vaccines and other public heath control measures available. If those aren't going to be prioritised, say why. If the 'Economy' is the key driver here, say it. Say 'you may die, but the Economy will be saved'. Say it. 10/end