Insurance is the last remnant of risk management employed by economies. As such, it’s one of the best…
Insurance is the last remnant of risk management employed by economies. As such, it’s one of the best insights into how issues are tracking, in reality. Social media is no guide, point of view is irrelevant. /1
https://t.co/UycMdeRfxS
McLuhan queried why social scientists spent so much time trying to get funding for social research, when advertisers were spending billions doing a lot of it for them. Insurance is the same, conversation and voting will give you no access to reality. /2
Look for where beliefs come up hard against reality. You’ll usually find data there that gives an indication as to how well matched the beliefs are, with reality. Towns repeatedly flooded will destroy the insurance industry, if no other risk management is done, for example. /3
Or insurance will simply be denied, or become unaffordable, as is already happening. One of the reasons actuaries were such important additions to Covid debates. Unlike epidemiology, actuarial analysis has the discipline of people actually losing money. /4
It was where public health really met ‘the economy’, head on. Where the fantasies Covid minimisers wove about living with a pandemic collided with inconvenient truths, like tens of thousands of excess deaths in Australia. And actuaries advise insurers. /5
Have a look at this recent summary.
“The guide's authors expected ensuing losses to continue. They said: “As decisions are handed down in the first wave of litigation between insurers and policyholders, this will generate a second wave of litigation…/6
https://t.co/YMeo6snOTy
…as parties seek to resolve gaps and ambiguities.
In addition, as losses mount, reinsurers will likely bear a higher proportion of claims as insurers exceed their retentions. This will, in turn, generate further litigation on complex legal issues.” /7
So despite what social media and prominent folk say about Covid, reality is already costing the outcome, based on what’s actually happening. I recommend ignoring all popularity-based politics, and shifting to reality-based politics. Actual outcomes. /end