Using Turchin's work on elite overproduction, it's possible to conceive all societies as status rivalries…

Using Turchin's work on elite overproduction, it's possible to conceive all societies as status rivalries between elites. What we call 'democracy' is really the degree of co-option of the wider population, to these rivalries. /1 https://t.co/5mYoUUH8y6

The level of immiseration of the wider population (vertical axis) determines their receptivity to co-option by rival elites. Where elite hierarchies are stabilised and populations are relatively content, you get stable order (Attractor 1). /2 https://t.co/oQwfDjOC8h

Where there is competition between rival elite groups, but the population is mostly content, co-option of the population to one or other entire rivalry is minimal (Attractor II). High levels of immiseration with unified elites creates 'authoritarian' rule (Attractor IV). /3 https://t.co/d2AlL1urcs

Finally where there is significant immiseration and popular discontent, and also intense elite rivalry into opposing elite teams, you get violent bifurcation (Attractor III). That's the space of revolution. There's no returning to stability from that point, it's chaotic. /4 https://t.co/cNEHkHYV4n

Once violent bifurcation occurs, the only way back is a complete re-build of society. There is no time in which 'the people' run anything. They are only co-opted into rivalries between elite. That IS history. /end