Hats off to the @GrattanInst and @stephenjduckett for calling it so early (July), and it's still bearing up…

Hats off to the @GrattanInst and @stephenjduckett for calling it so early (July), and it's still bearing up well. There will be nothing like 'normal' life back until populations get to at *least* 80% total population vaccination. /1 https://t.co/mE2tRnRMLo

You can check it yourself, case numbers in countries below that mark are all rising. Hospitalisations also trending up, where countries are below that 80% total population level. (Exception - countries maintaining strong restrictions, like China). /2 https://t.co/AttKfCQriv

It's vital to understand that Australia, like the UK, is trying to fast-track re-openings by doing one main thing. Infecting children in the hundreds of thousands. Seen to be low risk of severe disease, so therefore (apparently) expendable. /3

It's not vaccines so much that drive the projected hospitalisation numbers down in countries using that strategy. It's that the vast numbers of projected infections are young people. This is the National Plan in Australia, not a conspiracy theory. /4

You can see the projected child infections in the Doherty modelling. (And this is just symptomatic infections, multiply that by 3 or 4 for asymptomatic.) /5 https://t.co/0YQfzcpLpP

In the meantime, Australia has started vaccinating kids, nearly half the 12-15 year olds in NSW for example have already had one dose. Vaccines for under-12s are pending, but are likely to show the same pattern of rapid vaccination. /6 https://t.co/uluAjJFwAF

We can 're-open' before the kids are vaccinated, but the cost will be infecting many thousands of them. Some will also die and some will have lifelong health issues. It's possible rapid escalation of the young will meet the re-opening from the other direction.../7

...mitigating the number of infections. But why not just use the total population 80% figure, from the start? Hands up if you're an Australian who chooses 'infect the kids' instead? /8

There are only 6 weeks left of planned in-person schooling in NSW in 2021. Given schools and students are already in a routine of remote learning, why not just make that the model for 2021, while we vaccinate the kids? We'd have the summer holidays to finish the job. /end