#auspol #nswpol #covid19aus what’s been true across the entire world throughout this pandemic is that…
#auspol #nswpol #covid19aus what’s been true across the entire world throughout this pandemic is that attempts to ‘ring-fence’ infection, either defensively or offensively, don’t work. Thread about ‘all being in it together’. /1
There was a time and there may be some regions in the world now, where lack of mobility and interdependencies in social life mean Covid can be contained by geographic area. That isn’t true for most nations now, particularly those who see themselves as ‘economies’. /2
What’s little understood is that the borders we use between nations, and also between regions within countries, were applied *after* they were already deeply inter-connected with the world around them. The Westphalian carve-up which created the world map we know…/3
…has only existed since the 17th century. We tend to have this backwards, assuming countries came first, the ‘international community’ second. We were international long before we were national. The point being, borders and internal geographic and administrative boundaries…/4
…like LGAs are not barriers in that physical sense we like to think. They’re entirely legal and administrative instruments to regulate flow of people and goods, a flow that pre-existed them. ‘Sovereignty’ is a contractual agreement across borders, not a property of regions. /5
(This is more of the genius of political libertarians, whose economic reframing of social life is about continuously destroying barriers to ‘free trade’, while at the same time weaponising the resultant dislocation people feel electorally by pitching the idea of sovereignty.) /6
Back to Covid. You can’t restrict Covid inside any of these barriers, because they all exist only on maps and in regulations. Where we’ve tried to ring-fence infections or use ring-fencing to prevent them, we’ve always failed. The barriers are not physically real. /7
This is also true for age, for demography. We can’t restrict Covid to a particular age group, and where we’ve tried, the virus always finds its way to other age groups, using the path of least resistance. Yesterday I Tweeted that the UK is the strategic model NSW and Canberra…/8
…most closely imitate for Covid. There vaccination of the older members of society meant the virus simply decamped into younger age groups. Quite deliberate strategy, the belief is they are less damaged by infection, so this is a legitimate sacrifice. /9
For that reason (thanks to @juliette_io for these graphics), I think we need to always focus on total population vaccine coverage if we really want to end this pandemic. As seen here. Still quite a long way off anything like control of Covid, on that metric. /10 https://t.co/AQZebVqRd8
We’re vaccinating fast, but the 70 and 80% marks we’re all focusing on are both only really about half of the job done. The only people who argue against that are those willing to infect children en masse. Total coverage is the metric we need to use to end the pandemic. /11
And we’re going like gangbusters in those younger age groups. This is for 12+ (2 doses). Under-12s still don’t qualify for vaccines, but I’m sure the rates of vaccination there will also be explosive, once approved. This is the Covid front-line, not 70 and 80% adults. /12 https://t.co/pj3QVLbocW
‘It’s not over for anyone until it’s over for everyone’ reflects the deep interdependencies in modern societies. It’s not a moral thing as much as a simple practical truth. Ignoring any of the demographics or regions or nations, means the virus will set up camp there instead. /13
Epidemics are defined by number of infections, not by how many get sick. The only way to control the infections is to address all of our actions to all regions, and all age groups. Not sacrifice some in the belief the rest can live in a Covid-free gated community. /14
The worst projections for Covid will only come true if we don’t try to end the pandemic for all people and all regions, all at the same time. Within regions, countries, and internationally. I’m hoping Oz will vaccinate kids fast, despite their absence in national roadmaps. /end