#auspol #covid19aus one of the curious things in this pandemic is just how immune to some basic empirical…

#auspol #covid19aus one of the curious things in this pandemic is just how immune to some basic empirical evidence so many seem to be. For example it doesn’t take a lot of time to watch international news and see just how many countries go through the same tired routines. /1

They don’t control spread of the virus, but get it to some lower number and then announce ‘we can’t stay closed forever’, open up, and the virus smashes them. Every. Single. Time. Then they re-close, repeat ad nauseum. /2

Vaccines have emboldened these ‘are we there yet?’ adults further, now they think what failed every other time, will now succeed because of the vaccines. You can usually spot the ‘are we there yet?’ crowd because to them the enemy is lockdowns, not the virus. /3

But it’s also reputable experts, like the Doherty modelling group, who seem to not be testing assumptions against basic evidence. Other countries have tried the same vaccination thresholds as are proposed under Doherty, for opening up. All have so far failed. /4

Why has that not triggered greater scepticism about the 70% and 80% fantasies in circulation? Why do we not notice that the virus goes wherever opportunity presents itself, like into hundreds of thousands of children overseas? /5

I’m a bit over modelling and R numbers. It’s truly not rocket science that while a highly infectious novel pathogen is allowed to circulate, the pandemic isn’t over. No amount of graphs or calculations will change that basic fact. /end