#auspol #covid19aus #covid19nsw the key elements from the Doherty Report which are not being prosecuted daily…

#auspol #covid19aus #covid19nsw the key elements from the Doherty Report which are not being prosecuted daily in NSW press conferences. For those who don't understand it or are too lazy to read it, which appears to be most political journalists. /1

The report models degree of public health restrictions (PHSM) required to maintain hospital capacity, at different levels of vaccination for those aged 16 and above. It uses 4 categories of restriction - baseline, low, medium and high. /2

It also models two strengths of test, trace, isolate and quarantine (TTIQ): partial, and optimal. Partial when case numbers are high and compromise the ability to TTIQ. Optimal when case numbers are low enough to allow maximally effective TTIQ. /3

Before we get to the pictures and numbers, the report calibrates partial TTIQ capacity as that available to deal with the Victorian 2nd wave outbreak on 4 August 2020. (I wonder if they mean 5 August, as that was the peak.) /4

The 4 August case numbers in Victoria were 403. 5 August was 687. Remember this is when Doherty says TTIQ will be only partially effective, at this number. Obviously NSW has gone well past this already. /5

So, if TTIQ is only partially effective, this is how things pan out. 'Control' of the outbreak is the horizontal dotted grey line towards the bottom (R=1). At the magic 70% and 80% vaccination marks, medium and medium-light restrictions are still needed, respectively. /6 https://t.co/prEy8kFPda

(Don't forget NSW has already gone beyond the case numbers that calibrate this model.) Here are the definitions of baseline, low, medium and high. Current NSW restrictions are a blend of medium and high. /7 https://t.co/1pR4wwwiyQ

To quote the Report: "...light or moderate restrictions will likely be insufficient to regain control of epidemics even at 70% coverage for only a partially effective TTIQ response. Prolonged lockdowns would likely be needed to limit infection numbers and caseloads." /8

Remember the NSW Premier and PM have been saying that significant 'freedoms' will begin to return from 70% vaccination levels. Bears no relationship with what the Doherty Report says at all. /9

Also again NSW is already significantly past the caseloads that calibrate this model. And cases are growing exponentially, and doubling rate is dropping. Pushing that 'freedom' threshold even further from reality. /10

The report shows that should NSW open up completely with current case numbers, strong lockdowns would still be required up to 60% of the time (70% vaccination coverage), or nearly 40% of the time (80% coverage). (It bears repeating regularly that.../11

...these models assume case numbers significantly lower than what NSW has already.) If NSW were to retain light restrictions, full lockdowns would still be required 20-40% of the time (for 70% vaccination), and may be mostly unnecessary at 80% coverage. /12

The report and models make clear that at 50% vaccination coverage, the other carrot dangled by the Premier ('6 million jabs'), opening up would completely overwhelm the State with infections, without total lockdown. /end