#auspol #covid19 This is the risk assessment ATAGI used when first recommending use of AZ in Australia. The…

#auspol #covid19 This is the risk assessment ATAGI used when first recommending use of AZ in Australia. The critical thing that I haven't seen mentioned is, at no time was the risk of an outbreak actually estimated. 1/3 https://t.co/y6Qc3AXjnK

The risk assessment scenarios all assume that an outbreak has already occurred. There's no assessment of the risks of an actual outbreak, at all. So an assumption of inevitability. That shifts the whole risk profile. 2/3

If we had assessed the risk of virus entering the country - an outbreak - we may have had to remediate quarantine and PPE, for example. Perhaps that's why it wasn't done. We can still strongly shift the risk assessment by addressing those things. 3/3