#covid19 #auspol dumbfounded by the ongoing advice on risk in this pandemic. Lots of patronising…
#covid19 #auspol dumbfounded by the ongoing advice on risk in this pandemic. Lots of patronising simplifications from supposed experts. 1/8
The risk to an individual of a clot with the AZ vaccine is tiny. That individual risk is used to frame a narrative that implies that this is the risk of clots to the community, not the individual. At the population level, the risk of a clot becomes? Actual clotS. Plural. 2/8
On current numbers, and rolling out only to those over 50 or 60, about 10-20 people per million vaccinated. So anything from 50-100 people who *will develop* clots. Not have a tiny risk of clots, will DEVELOP clots. 3/8
Of these, some will die. Many will be critically ill. This is known, even calculable. In public narratives, all we hear is that the risk of a clot is tiny (individual risk), which is irrelevant to the population-level risk that government and experts work with. 4/8
This is done, again, to create an impression this is a tiny problem. Irrational to be concerned about it, etc. At the same time, risk is described only in terms of likelihood, with consequence or impact omitted. With those, risk is medium at best. Basic risk management fail. 5/8
The public IS factoring in impact. For this sin - doing basic risk management - they're regularly mocked as 'hesitant', as if they're naive and overly anxious about such 'tiny' risks. Any company who found a medium risk and called it insignificant would be deemed negligent. 6/8
If government and advisers won't be honest and say 'yes some of you will become critically ill, and some may die' - if they're HESITANT to say that - then whose hesitancy is ethical here? Theirs or the public's? 7/8
So far more people have died from the vaccine than from Covid in 2021, in Australia. Is that good public policy? If we're saying outbreaks of Covid are immiment, and this will change the risk profile, why aren't we preventing them? Where's the PPE, new quarantine, masks? Etc. 8/8