@normanswan @teegstar @rajah_mich vaccine 'hesitancy'. I've worked extensively in risk management, and…

@normanswan @teegstar @rajah_mich vaccine 'hesitancy'. I've worked extensively in risk management, and suspect the public is actually being more sophisticated than much of the expert advice. Everything in the public narrative is about likelihood - the odds of a clot. 1/3

But even basic risk management knows that likelihood alone is not very useful as a measure. It has to be triangulated against impact of an event to be meaningful. As in this simple and common risk matrix. 2/3 https://t.co/OvgwsZEoAg

Looking at the matrix, a vaccine clot is very unlikely (likelihood), but the impact is severe (impact). That makes the overall risk medium, not low, or 'tiny' as many say, when they use only likelihood as a metric. 3/3