@normanswan tweeting this as somebody with training in high-level maths, stats, risk management and ethics.…

@normanswan tweeting this as somebody with training in high-level maths, stats, risk management and ethics. Not a yokel or in any way an anti-vaxxer. I'm concerned about how vaccine risk and hesitancy is being described in public debate. 1/n

Take peanut allergy. We don't count the number of children who have a severe allergic reaction, divide that number by the total number of children, and call that the 'risk' to all children, from peanuts. The majority of children have zero risk, a small number 100%. 2/n https://t.co/ucB7B1FFEw

We protect that small group from severe reaction and death by widespread restrictions on peanuts. Not by telling every parent/child 'the risk is tiny of having a reaction'. We don't mistake population risk with individual risk. 3/n

So why are we using population risk as a proxy for individual risk, with vaccines? Similarly, the majority will get no clots. But the small number who do may even die. They need protection. It's simply untrue that the risk to each individual is the population risk? 4/end