4 September

There’s a lot of public discussion about the Doherty Report. Here’s the crux of it, outcomes for different levels of vaccination (adults only). The first 6 months after ‘opening up’. Worth noting: - even at the 80% vaccination figure, nearly half-a-million symptomatic infections, and multiples of that number for asymptomatic infection - at the 6 month mark, about 80 deaths per day (as the Queensland Premier said, though she implied the model says that’s ongoing, which isn’t correct. It’s just the peak) - deaths even at the top 80% figure will be 3 times an average flu year. What’s more important than any of that though are key assumptions. Most importantly that contact tracing is functioning. In NSW it isn’t, it’s broken. When you factor that in, deaths rise to over 25,000, even at the 80% figure. Why every serious public health person in the country says that the 70 and 80% figures must be of the TOTAL population, including children.