3 January

Trump’s regime change adventure in Venezuela will horrify many. (And Trump is a dangerous buffoon.) But let’s add the context. The US does this sort of thing all the time, and for very specific reasons. Russia too, though much less. Rome did it thousands of years ago. China hardly at all - for fascinating reasons. SInce 1945 the US has been involved in between 60 and 80 regime changes like this. The Russians less than half that. Sometimes it’s overt, like what we’ve just seen. Sometimes it’s covert, behind the scenes. So why does it happen? The standard line is imperial expansion type stuff, trying to take over and run the world. But actually it’s all about the thing I post a lot about - managing status games at home. Elite rivalries. Because all humans fight for status, the great challenge for all societies is to manage the rivalries between elites looking for dominance. When a society overproduces elite contenders, it creates a crisis, often leading to revolution and collapse. That’s when everybody from Rome, through to the US and Russia today, starts regime change in other countries. For the same reason Kings and emperors always did this. It opens up new possibilities for their domestic elites, new positions and influence and wealth. We all know this, Kings would use foreign battles to offer new land and positions to their barons. The same today, the US is in an elite overproduction crisis, that’s what generated Trump. It’s releasing the tension by expanding, as the Romans and Russians also did. This expansion gives opportunities for domestic elites to make money and have influence, relieving pressure on the domestic status hierarchies. Why does China not do this as much? Because it internalised the crisis elite rivalries produce, it has periodic dynastic successions between its ’Great Leaders’, purging the old elites and opening space for rivals. Plus it has a highly competitive civil service and Party machine, that manages elite rivalries every day. Everything is always about status, for humans. From which pair of shoes and which bands and coffee you like, through to these international events. Without that framework, none of it makes sense, it all just looks like the forces of evil at work. But we all play these status games, we’re all part of it.