26 November

I think this metaphorically describes the Queensland election, and most politics in the Western world. The conservative side of politics - the LNP here - is a very shaky coalition of people who are in many ways fundamentally different. It’s a complete marriage of convenience. They often say the ‘natural’ party of government in Australia is Labor - this is why, it’s the only party that comes within cooee of getting a majority by itself, in any State or federal election. The LNP is that very uncomfortable coalition of two quite distinct parties, united mostly by their hatred of Labor and not a lot more. This isn’t a plug for either party, just an observation of the reality. Politics in Australia is mostly a battle between historically wealthy rural landowners and city business interests, represented by the LNP, and the working class, represented by Labor. There are far more workers than there are farmers or business owners, which is why Labor is the natural party of power. So that’s why the conservatives also disintegrate at regular intervals, as has happened in Queensland. A third party comes along and pitches to one half of the coalition in ways the other half of that coalition can’t stomach. So they split the vote.