20 September

People have probably heard a lot about the Doherty modelling in the news, the guide governments are using for the 70% and 80% re-openings. Wanted to share some of it because I’m not sure how many people have actually read it. The NSW Premier warned people yesterday to be prepared for a shock when the State re-opens, and here’s why. The yellow highlighted figures. Opening at 70%, which NSW will reach in the new few weeks, there would be 500,000-600,000 new infections in the following six months. That’s over 3000 a day. 2000-3000 ICU admissions, which is enormously above actual State capacity. At 80%, about 300,000 infections in the following 6 months, nearly 2000 a day. ICU 1300-2000, again well above State capacity. Doherty have also come out this morning and said their estimates of ICU patients and deaths are much too low, as they were based on the Alpha variant of Covid, not Delta. So those numbers will be much higher once they correct them. What does this all mean? It means that the idea we will have much ‘freedom’ back at either 70 or 80% of adults vaccinated is a fairy tale. There will still be strong restrictions, even lockdowns.