7 March

Not filled with confidence at our response to Covid-19 if the toilet paper experience is a trial run. Things could get a lot more disrupted than this, if people are going to hysterically find scapegoats at every break in routine, God help us. On toilet paper: - in normal times people replace it as they need it, which means demand is spread across time - stores have a small amount of inventory to meet this spread demand - toilet paper is one of the largest shelf space items, so shelves empty quickly with relatively few buyers - if everybody suddenly needs to stock up at the same time, even in small amounts, it breaks the logistics of small inventory and spread demand, emptying the shelves, and - empty shelves then disrupt the normal top-up buying as well, alongside the stocking up process, creating even more instant demand. Nothing to do with lots of people being idiots or selfish. The same pattern is repeating in many countries. It’s more about logistics than psychology.