25 June

We hear about the dangers of exponential growth with COVID. What i don’t think is talked about is how much worse again the exponential challenge is with contact tracing. While each infected person might infect 3 or 4 others (at the lower end of the scale), the number of contacts they have is many times greater than that. And each of those contacts the same, etc. etc. You only need a handful of cases to quickly overwhelm manual contact tracing. If it’s a competition between an exponentially infectious virus, and a shopping list of restrictions millions of people have to use to try to control it, every cent of my money is on the virus.